Oilseed rape world outlook from DSV

OSR Outlook 2010

 

World position 

It remains difficult to see where values will be by the time harvest comes around next year. The world recession has reduced demand for edible oils and crude  oil, however we are finally seeing the ‘green shoots’ of recovery beginning to emerge. Most notably China is supporting the market by continuing to buy soybeans from the US, and India’s lack of monsoon rains has brought them into the market earlier than normal pushing palm oil upwards. Another factor being looked at closely is the poor quality of the corn (maize) crop in the US, grown for animal feed, which may lead to an increased home usage of soybeans. Argentinian soy plantings, whilst ahead of ‘normal’ levels, are being drilled into very dry seed beds which could lead to reduced yields. Lastly, the decline in the value of the pound against the US dollar and the Euro has had a substantial effect, pushing all commodity prices lower. All these points are getting the fund managers and speculators interested and active, at least until the next shower of rain!

Oilseed Rape

Oilseed rape remains the major European oil crop both for consumption and biofuel, and at least from a UK perspective, the most important break in an arable rotation.

“Winter oilseed rape is set to remain the UK’s preferred break crop”, says Lawrence Hicks, Marketing Director for UAP. “Oilseed rape ticks more boxes for farmers than alternatives. Financially oilseed rape is one of the stronger breaks but more consistent yields are needed to make it a stand alone crop. It is the practical benefits that set rape apart. The spread of workload and resources with earlier harvesting and establishment avoiding the cereal peaks, time for ground work and cultural grass weed control ahead of a “true” first wheat entry (take all break) put it ahead of other breaks for many farming systems. Control of volunteers – green bridge effect on disease reduced, grass weed control in crop – are these worth working in at all?

For these reasons the UK Rape area is set to remain between 550 and 600 thousand hectares for the foreseeable future. The challenge for rape is yield consistency delivering stand alone crop viability with all the rotational and cultural benefits as a bonus. This is where initiatives like Project Energise are so important to its future.

The farmers tale

Roger French, from Newlands Farm, Dunmow, Essex agreed, ‘For me oilseed rape is the only viable break crop, as my farm is located on heavy hanslope series clay as well as being very exposed’. He continued ‘having been disappointed with the performance of my conventional varieties for the last couple of years, I discussed the issues with my agronomist, James Potter from Masstock,  and decided to put all my eggs in one basket and grow the hybrid Hammer, as I believe this will give me a more consistent crop.’ With other work commitments and a busy harvest period Mr French’s drilling is generally late, so again a hybrid with early vigour was an obvious choice. He went on to say ‘I didn’t want to grow a particularly short variety as I need a good root structure to break through the heavy clay. The crop so far is well established  which I am hoping will give me the best position over weeds such as black grass showing improved reliability in the long run’.

The key think, of course, will be how yields finally turn out at the end of 2010. Many believe that the bumper yields experienced by many growers in 2009, was a result of the thin crops coming out of the winter. This season, with generally early drilling (to hopefully avoid the problems of winter kill) many crops are looking very lush, and the issue is one of growth control, not growth promotion.!